Baseball Week #9: Feelin A Draft

In my regular post yesterday, I talked about overall number #1 draft picks from various sports who flopped in their careers. With baseball's amateur draft this week, I want to expand on this topic a little more. The draft in all sports, but very specifically baseball, is a very tough science to figure out. The vast majority of the "can't miss" prospects usually don't pan out, but there's also many gems from the dregs of the draft that develop into superstars. Stephen Strasburg has been the most hyped baseball prospect in years and that alone makes me skeptical. Being a Cub fan, we've had our share of draft flops-Mark Prior being the most recent (players like Mike Harkey, even Shawon Dunston comes to mind). But for every Prior, there's a Mike Piazza, who was drafted as a family favor in like the 62nd round. Piazza should a first ballot Hall Of Famer when the time comes.

So today, we'll focus on the draft: the good and the flops.

The Good: Fun Facts:

-Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey, Jr. were overall #1's who should be inducted into the Hall Of Fame. Joe Mauer is a recent overall #1 who's had some success.

-Some recent first round success stories: Mike Mussina, Todd Helton, Lance Berkman, Carsten Sabathia, Jason Varitek, Derrek Lee, Torii Hunter, Billy Wagner, Derek Jeter.

-In 1968, the Dodgers selected the core of their eventual success: Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, Bill Russell, Bill Buckner; even Bobby Vallentine, Tom Paciorek and Doyle Alexander were picked that year.

-1985 saw Barry Bonds and Randy Johnson drafted, as well as BJ Surhoff, Will Clark (2), Bobby Witt (3), Barry Larkin (4), Bonds (6), Pete Incaviglia (8), Walt Weiss (11), Brian McRae (17), Joe Magrane (18), Gregg Jefferies (20), Rafael Palmeiro (22) and Joey Cora (23). Some consider 1985 the best draft ever. David Justice went in the fourth round.

-How about those late round picks? In the famed 1985 draft, John Smoltz went in the 22nd round (and speaking of life's ironies, Smoltz was traded to Atlanta in 1987 for the aforementioned Doyle Alexander, as the Tigers wanted a starter for the stretch run); Mark Grace went in the 24th round. Ryne Sandberg was a 20th round pick. Iron Man Cal Ripken surely was a first round pick, right? How about round 2? Jeff Reardon, a great relief pitcher, was a 23rd round pick. Dusty Baker was a 22nd round pick. Eddie Murray was a 3rd round pick. Wade Boggs was only a 7th round pick. Surely Rickey Henderson was a first rounder? Nope-round 4. Jim Thome was a 13th round pick. Trevor Hoffman-11th round. There are many more examples of late round gems; these are just a few of the notables. So being in the first round is no guarantee of any success.

Hunter Flops: The ugly of the draft.

For fun, here's an all flop team of first rounders:

1b-Steve Stanicek. First round pick in 1982. Played only 12 games with a .188 BA

2b-Richard Puig. Mets drafted him in the first round in 1971. He's so fluky that here's no information on this player.

ss-Ross jones. Who? First round pick in 1980 by the Dodgers. Only played 67 games with .221 BA

3b-Chris Donnells. Who? 17 HR over 12 years, with a .233 BA. The Mets picked him in the first round in 1987.

c- Steve Chilcott. First overall pick in 1966. Never made the majors. In that draft, Reggie Jackson was taken second. Can you imagine if the Mets drafted Reggie instead??

of- Al Chambers. 2 Hr, 11 RBI, .208 batting average, 57 games

of-Shawn Abner. 11HR, 71 RBI, .227 BA over 6 years

of-Corey Patterson. Never really reached potential as the third overall pick. 198 stolen bases over 9 years but always looked lost at the plate.

dh-Danny Goodwin. The only player picked first overall twice (1971 and 1975). 13 HR, 81 RBI, .236 BA over 8 years.

p-Brien Taylor. Never made the majors

p-Roger Salkeld. Third overall pick in 1989; only 10-10 with a 5.36 ERA

p-Mark Prior. Listed here because I'm bitter. Never became the next Tom Seaver. Tom Jones maybe??

Draft wisely. It's only your future at stake....

JP